Amandla e-AI eComputer avuthulula iMfuno yeMarike; Amaxabiso e-G652D G657A2 Fiber Optic anyuke aya eNew Highs Point

Ukususela ekuqaleni kuka-2026, imakethi yefayibha ye-optical ibone ukunyuka okungaqhelekanga kwamaxabiso. Ixabiso lefayibha ye-optical ye-G.652.D eqhelekileyo inyuke ngokukhawuleza ukusuka kwi-3usd ngekhilomitha nganye ekupheleni kuka-2025 ukuya kwi-7.5usd ngekhilomitha nganye. Iingcaphuno ze-Spot kwiitshaneli ezithile zokusasaza zidlule uphawu lwe-7.5usd—ezinye zide zidluleI-12usd ngekhilomitha nganye ephakathiumda—ukubeka umgangatho omtsha wokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwiminyaka esixhenxe ukuze amaxabiso aqokeleleke. Kwangaxeshanye, iifayibha ezikhethekileyo eziphezulu ezifana ne-G.657.A2 kunye ne-G.654.E ziye zafumana ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okubaluleke ngakumbi.

Abantu abaninzi abangaphakathi kushishino ababuzwe ngalo mba babonise ukuba olu jikelezo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso luqhutywa kukunyuka okunzulu kwemfuno evela kwimithombo emininzi: iziseko zekhompyutha ze-AI, inyathelo le-"Eastern Data, iWestern Computing", kunye nokugubungela inethiwekhi ye-5G ngokunzulu. Oku kunyuka kwemfuno kudibaniswa yimida eqinileyo kumthamo wemveliso ye-optical fiber preform kunye nokuhanjiswa okuncinci kwezinto eziluhlaza eziphezulu, okudala ukungalingani okubonakalayo phakathi kokunikezelwa kunye nemfuno. Ngenxa yezi zinto, amaxabiso ezabelo zeenkampani ezidweliswe kwi-A-share ngaphakathi kwe-optical fiber, cable, kunye ne-optical communications industry aqhubekile nokuqina. Amashishini aphambili axela iincwadi ze-odolo ezipheleleyo kunye nokuhlaziywa okuphezulu kwiziphumo zengeniso yawo, nto leyo ebonisa ukuba eli shishini lifikelela kwinqanaba elibalulekileyo lokutshintsha—ukutshintsha ukusuka kwinqanaba lemfazwe yamaxabiso ukuya kwinqanaba lokufumana inzuzo.

**Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-Optical Fiber kuqalise ukusebenza ngokupheleleyo**

Njenge "nkqubo yeemvakalelo" yeziseko zophuhliso zedijithali, i-optical fiber isebenza njengeyona ndlela iphambili yokudlulisa amandla e-AI computing, iququzelela unxibelelwano lwe-5G, idibanisa amaziko edatha, kwaye ixhasa iprojekthi ye-"Eastern Data, Western Computing". Ukusebenza kwayo kunye nobonelelo kumisela ngokuthe ngqo isantya kunye nomgangatho wophuhliso loqoqosho lwedijithali.

Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso e-optical fiber kwaqala kwikota yesine ka-2025 kwaye kwangena kwindlela ekhawulezayo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ngoJanuwari nangoFebruwari ka-2026. Oku akukokunyuka kwamaxabiso okuqhelekileyo okuchaphazela iinkcukacha ezithile, kodwa kukunyuka kwamaxabiso okubanzi okugubungela zonke iindidi zeemveliso kunye neendlela zokusasaza.

Ngokukodwa, idatha evela kwi-CRU ibonisa ukuba ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lemarike le-G.652.D single-mode fiber—uhlobo olusetyenziswa kakhulu kwicandelo lezonxibelelwano—linyuke ukusuka ngaphantsi kwe-20 yuan ngekhilomitha nganye ngoNovemba 2025 ukuya phakathi kwe-40 kunye ne-50 yuan ngekhilomitha nganye ngoFebruwari 2026. Ukunyuka okuphezulu kwenyanga kudlule i-75%, okubangela ukuba amaxabiso aphindwe kabini kwiinyanga ezintathu kuphela.

Ngokwembono yokuthengwa kwempahla, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ngaxeshanye ngaphakathi kweethenda zokuthengwa kwempahla ezikhokelwa ngabathwali kuqinisekisa ngakumbi ubunyani kunye nokuzinza kwesi sigaba sangoku sokunyuka kwamaxabiso.

Ukwanda komsantsa phakathi kobonelelo kunye nemfuno kuseyeyona nto iphambili exhasa olu tshintsho lokunyuka kwamaxabiso. I-Guotai Haitong Securities ithi, ngokuchasene notshintsho olukhulu olujikelezayo kwicandelo le-fiber optics, uguquko lwamaxabiso kushishino lonke luye lwaqinisekiswa. Emva kokujongana noxinzelelo oluphantsi kwisiqingatha sokuqala sonyaka ophelileyo, amaxabiso e-fiber optical aphinde anyuka kwisiqingatha sesibini; olu hlaziyo luqhutywe kukunyuka okukhulu kwemfuno yamanye amazwe ye-fiber ye-G.657.A2, eyabangela utshintsho kumandla emveliso. Njengoko amandla atshintshela kwi-fiber ye-G.652.D—okubangela ukuncipha kobonelelo kunye nokwandiswa kancinci kancinci kwamaxesha okukhokela—amaxabiso e-fiber ekhululekileyo aqhubekile nokunyuka kwawo kutshanje.

**Indlela Eza Kuqhubeka Ixesha Elithile**

Ukunyuka okuqhubekayo kwamaxabiso e-fiber optic okwangoku akukokutshintshatshintsha kwemarike okwethutyana okuqhutywa kukuqikelela kwexesha elifutshane; endaweni yoko, sisiphumo sokusebenzisana kwezinto ezininzi, kubandakanya ukungalingani phakathi kokunikezelwa kunye nemfuno, izakhiwo zeendleko eziqinileyo, kunye nokwenza ngcono imeko-bume yeshishini.

Phakathi kwezi zinto, ukukhula okukhulu kwicala leemfuno—kunye nemida eqinileyo kwicala lokubonelela—yimbangela eyintloko. Ngokwembono yemfuno, ukwakhiwa ngokukhawuleza kweziseko zekhompyutha ze-AI kuye kwavela njengomqhubi oyintloko okhuthaza imfuno yefayibha ye-optical.

Ngenxa yokusasazwa okukhulu kwe-AI evelisayo kunye neemodeli ezinkulu zolwimi, isantya sokwakhiwa kwamaziko edatha e-AI e-hyperscale siyaqhubeka nokukhawulezisa. Iziko ledatha le-AI eli-hyperscale elinye lisebenzisa amaxesha amathathu ukuya kwamahlanu e-fiber ye-optical xa kuthelekiswa neziko ledatha lendabuko; ngenxa yoko, imfuno yefayibha ekhawulezayo nelahleko ephantsi—ebalulekileyo kwii-internal interconnects kunye nokudluliselwa kwe-cluster-to-cluster ukusuka kumgama omde—ikhula ngokukhawuleza.

Imijikelo yangaphambili ye-fiber optic yayidla ngokuqhutywa kukwandiswa kwe-broadband okanye ukusasazwa kwezikhululo ze-5G ngabaqhubi be-telecom—imizamo ejolise ekusombululeni umba osisiseko wokuba “ngaba unxibelelwano lukhona na.” Nangona kunjalo, umjikelo wangoku uqhutywa yimfuno yokuxhasa iimfuno zekhompyutha eziphindaphindayo zeemodeli ezinkulu ze-AI—ngokukodwa, ukujongana nomngeni “wokuthutha amandla ekhompyutha.” Olu tshintsho kwimfuno—ukusuka kumaleko wokufikelela komsebenzisi wokugqibela ukuya kumagumbi ezixhobo eziphambili kunye neeData Center Interconnects (DCI)—lutshintshe ngokusisiseko iimfuno zeefayibha ze-optical ezizodwa ezisebenza kakuhle, ezilahlekelwa kancinci.

Kwangaxeshanye, ukuqhubeka kophuhliso olujulileyo lwe-5G kunye nokusasazwa kwenethiwekhi ye-6G okujonge phambili nako kuyayinyusa imfuno ye-optical fiber. Imfuno yokubalwa kwe-fiber core ephezulu kwiinethiwekhi ze-fronthaul kunye ne-midhaul zezikhululo zesiseko se-5G inyuke kakhulu; ngaphezulu koko, amanyathelo anjengokuvuselelwa kweendawo zasemaphandleni kunye nophuhliso lwe-"Gigabit Cities" aqhuba ukuphuculwa kwenethiwekhi ye-Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) ukuya kwisantya se-10-Gigabit, okuqinisekisa ukukhula okuqinileyo nokuzinzileyo kwemfuno kwicandelo lezonxibelelwano zendabuko.

Ngaphezu koko, uphuhliso olukhawulezileyo lweemeko zezicelo ezivelayo—ezifana ne-Intanethi yezeShishini, i-fiber optics yeemoto, kunye nonxibelelwano lweenqwelo-moya—luye lwandisa ngakumbi amandla okukhula okukhulayo kwimfuno ye-fiber optic. Olu tshintsho lutshintshe isakhiwo semfuno yeshishini: ukusuka ekuxhomekekeni ngokukodwa ekuthengweni okuphakathi ngabaqhubi bezonxibelelwano, lutshintshela kwindawo yemfuno eyahlukeneyo nephezulu.

Uphawu olucacileyo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso e-fiber optic kukuba kukunyuka kwamaxabiso *olwakhiwo*, okuqhutywa ikakhulu licala lemfuno. Ukwakhiwa kweziseko zophuhliso ze-AI computing kunye namanyathelo afana neprojekthi ye-"Eastern Data, Western Computing" kubangele ukwanda okukhulu kwemfuno yeefayibha ze-optical; ngaxeshanye, imfuno yeedrone ze-FPV optical-fiber zomkhosi nazo zinyuke kakhulu. Nangona kunjalo, kwicala lokubonelela, imida kumandla emveliso yeefayibha ze-optical preforms (ii-preform rods) zenze kwaba nzima ukuphendula ngokukhawuleza kolu kunyuka. Oku kungafani phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno kubangele ukunyuka okukhulu, kwexesha elifutshane kwamaxabiso. Ngokungafaniyo neemeko zangaphambili—apho ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kwakuqhutywa ikakhulu kukuthengwa okuphakathi ngabaqhubi be-telecom kunye neminye imithombo yesiqhelo yemfuno, kwaye apho imijikelo yokuguquguquka kwamaxabiso yayimfutshane kakhulu—ukurhawuzelelwa kwangoku kulawulwa yi-AI kunye namanye amacandelo asakhulayo. Kumela ukuguquka kwesakhiwo sexesha elide okwenzeka phakathi kotshintsho olukhulu kushishino; ukukhula kwemfuno kubonakala ngokuzinza kunye nobukhulu, endaweni yokuba yimveliso nje yokuqikelela kwexesha elifutshane.

Umqhubi oyintloko emva kwale nkqubo yokunyuka kwamaxabiso yingxaki yomthamo we-preform yefayibha ye-optical. Ngaphakathi kwikhonkco leshishini lefayibha ye-optical, ii-preforms zimisela umda ophezulu wobonelelo; eli candelo libonakaliswa yimiqobo ephezulu yetekhnoloji, imijikelo emide yokwandiswa komthamo, kunye neemfuno ezinkulu zemali, okwenza kube nzima ukuba unikezelo luhambelane nokukhula kwemfuno. Ukujonga phambili, ukuba umthamo wemveliso ye-preform uvulwa kancinci kancinci ngokusasazwa kwezixhobo ezintsha kunye nophuhliso lwetekhnoloji, ukungalingani kobonelelo-imfuno kuya kuncipha, kwaye amaxabiso e-optical fiber aya kubuyela kancinci kancinci kuluhlu olufanelekileyo. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba uphuhliso lwe-AI kunye namanye amacandelo ludlula ulindelo—luqhubela phambili, ukukhula okukhulu kwemfuno—ngelixa ukwandiswa komthamo we-preform kungaphumeleli kwiingqikelelo, amaxabiso anokuhlala kumanqanaba aphezulu okanye aqhubeke nokunyuka phakathi kokuguquguquka.

Kwinkqubo yokuvelisa i-optical fiber, i-optical fiber preform (intonga ye-preform) yenza inqanaba eliphambili. Ibandakanya i-60% ukuya kwi-70% yeendleko zemveliso iyonke kwaye imele icandelo elinemiqobo ephezulu yetekhnoloji kunye neemfuno ezinkulu zotyalo-mali. Ngaphezu koko, umjikelo wokwakha umgca omnye wemveliso ye-preform mkhulu, uhlala uthatha iinyanga ezili-18 ukuya kwezingama-24—inkqubo ende equka yonke into ukusuka ekuvunyweni kweprojekthi, ukuthengwa kwezixhobo, ukufakwa, kunye nokuqaliswa ukuya kwinqanaba lokugqibela lomthamo wemveliso.

Ukususela ngo-2019 ukuya ku-2024, ishishini le-optical fiber belikwimfazwe yamaxabiso ende eyanciphisa kakhulu inzuzo yenkampani. Ngenxa yoko, uninzi lwamashishini lukhethe ukunciphisa iindleko zawo zemali, nto leyo eyabangela ukongezwa okuncinci kakhulu kumandla emveliso angaphambi kokwenziwa ngeli xesha.

Nangona kunjalo, abantu abangaphakathi kushishino bakholelwa ukuba oku kunyuka okungaqhelekanga kwamaxabiso e-optical fiber akunakwenzeka ukuba kuphele kungekudala.

Ukunyuka kwexabiso leefayibha ze-optical kubonisa ukunqongophala kwezinto ezisisiseko ezixhasa uqoqosho lwedijithali. Nangona olu xinzelelo lweendleko lunokudluliselwa kubaqhubi be-telecom, lunokwenzeka ukuba lufunxwe yi-premium iyonke enxulumene nophuhliso lweziseko ze-AI. Logama nje ugqatso lwehlabathi lwamandla e-AI computing luqhubeka lungathintelwa, olu nqongophalo lwesakhiwo—olusekelwe kuphuculo lwetekhnoloji—alunakusonjululwa lula kwixesha elifutshane ngokunyusa amandla emveliso akhoyo. Imfuno ebalulekileyo yamaziko e-computing akrelekrele kwi-bandwidth ephezulu kakhulu kunye nokudluliselwa kwe-low-latency iwabeke njengenjini ephambili eqhuba ukukhula kwemfuno ye-fiber optics, ngaloo ndlela iguqula ngokusisiseko amandla emfuno yeshishini le-fiber. Xa kuthelekiswa namaziko edatha emveli, iimfuno ze-fiber optic zesikhungo esinye se-computing esikrelekrele zinokuba zininzi—okanye zingaphezulu kweshumi—ngokuphindwe kalishumi; iqela eliqhelekileyo le-GPU eliquka amakhadi ali-10,000, umzekelo, lifuna amashumi amawaka eekhilomitha ze-fiber-core kuphela kwii-internet server interconnects. Isabelo semfuno ye-fiber optic ebangelwa yi-AI-driven intra-data center kunye ne-DCI (Data Center Interconnect) iimeko kulindeleke ukuba zinyuke ukusuka ngaphantsi5% ngo-2024 ukuya kuma-35% ngo-2027.